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Inflation: Tears In Your Coffee
Written by Brad Zigler   
July 16, 2008 3:00 PM EST


Consumer prices jumped in June by the largest amount in nearly three decades, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy and food prices (surprise! surprise!) led the parade of price hikes.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index jumped 1.1% in June, after rising 0.6% in May. In June, energy prices surged 6.6%, according to the government report, while food costs ticked up 1%. Energy costs, say the Feds, are growing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 53.6%, and food prices are advancing at an 8.5% clip.

A little of that wholesale inflation we fretted about back in June ("PPI: The Numbers Behind The Numbers") is trickling into the retail sector. On Tuesday, the BLS reported that wholesale prices climbed 1.8% in June.

Our Breakfast Index keeps track of the link between wholesale and retail food costs by measuring the changes in a basket of eight widely consumed breakfast commodities. In June, the index snapped a two-month decline to rise at a compound annual rate of 56%.

At the top of the list were increases in the price of cocoa and coffee. There's a caffeine alert of the highest order, warning of yet more expensive coffee to come and, now that Starbucks (NasdaqGS: SBUX) is shuttering stores, fewer places to get it.

Wheat was the only commodity to have lost ground in the three-month period ending June 30. You might want to keep your toast dry, though; the cost of butter's ticking up at a 34.1% annual rate.

Of course, dry toast can better sop up the tears you'll shed when you note that prices for orange juice, sugar, milk and bacon are also rising at double-digit rates.

See? Even inflation has its compensations.

 

June Breakfast Index

 

Commodity

Contract

Month

31-March-08

Price

30-June-08

Price

3-Month

 Change (%)

Annualized

Change (%)

Cocoa

July ‘08

$2,349/tonne

$3,245/tonne

39.3

290.2

Coffee

July ‘08

150.90 ¢/lb

129.95 ¢/lb

16.1

87.3

Butter, AA

July ‘08

141.50 ¢/lb

151.75 ¢/lb

7.2

34.1

Orange Juice

September ‘08

115.90 ¢/lb

122.60 ¢/lb

6.0

27.9

Sugar #11

October ‘08

12.52 ¢/lb

13.10 ¢/lb

4.6

13.1

Milk, Class III

July ‘08

$17.84/cwt

$18.50/cwt

3.7

16.5

Pork Bellies (Bacon)

July ‘08

69.800 ¢/lb

71.800 ¢/lb

2.9

12.6

Wheat

September ‘08

$9.4600/bu

$8.5875/bu

-9.2

-33.4

Average

 

 

 

8.8

56.0

 

 

 



 

 
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